Fox there on merit

Ok, my first article on this fine blog and what a time to Join!
Yesterday was a very good day indeed for Dr Fox, surviving the first round and with a real prospect in the second. The newspapers on Wednesday will, without doubt, focus significantly on the fact Davis managed just 62 votes despite having more than this actually declared, so what was DD's answer to this? To suggest there had been tactical voting. The tactical vote claim is somewhat disappointing and I'm not sure that too many will really be convinced.

Speculation Fox benefited from tactical voting seems mainly to come from the fact he gained 19 additional votes, so in a sense it's not a huge suprise, but it's not an analysis that stands up to scrutiny. Indeed Dr Fox was thought to have about 10 additional members of the Cornerstone group who hadn’t declared for him but that would vote for him, and with many other undeclared MP's being right-wing and/or part of the 2005 intake many had already concluded Fox would pick up a fair share of such MP's anyhow. The Political betting site, which received a statistically significant 103 first round predictions, had fox with an average of 41 votes; such a figure confirms most punters had expected Fox to get in the early 40's and his final score of 42 was therefore no suprise. Should there have been any attempt of tactical voting it must have been extremely small and thus probably negligible in him beating Clarke.

What makes claims of tactical voting (with the implication that keeping Fox in the voting would serve the purpose of eliminating Ken Clarke) even more absurd is the idea that the Davis camp would really benefit more from having Fox, as opposed to Clarke left in the voting. Davis is currently looking to likely to be soundly beaten no matter who he faces in the final 2, but its unlikely given his instable campaign he'll even care who he faces, so long as he is there in the first place - given Fox shares some of the same ground for support, he is therefore posed a much greater threat by keeping Fox in. Davis knows this and I'm sure he'd have preferred to see Clarke remain diluting support on what’s perceived to be the left of the party, thus ensuring his very safe passage to the final two.

When the above is considered in conjunction with Davis' recent interview on Sunday am where he specifically states he would not take part in tactical voting it makes the claim seem increasing perplexing. The suggestion, if taken in its intended context can do Davis no good even if he does make the final two, and it also clearly shows he is clearly very worried about further defections to Fox. Such claims now appear to be a sign of desperation, more than anything.

For Dr Fox, the news is all good - while he may yet prove the victim (or indeed the beneficiary) of tactical voting in the final round he can at least, for this moment hold his head up high in the knowledge he has enjoyed a good level of support from many MP's and his agenda was a good one - with many MP's now questioning who really does have the momentum Dr Fox certainly has all to play for.